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"Resource Investor" - Physicals
Bureau of Economic Analysis
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21 June 2009
Weekly Outlook
Predicting Fed announcements is always a bit “iffy” – one never knows what they’re likely to say because THEY know what they say will be sliced and diced in the media seeking “hidden agendas”. And – THIS is why the FED used to adhere to a policy of opaque commentary under both Volcker and Greenspan. This time everything’s different. Full transparency is all the “rage”. My tangential involvement in the hedge fund industry recently has brought with it a surprise (or two). Some of the best and brightest minds in investments are quietly saying to themselves the problem with full transparency lies in what to do with the information it makes available. Structured investments crafted by mathematical genius geekdom means essentially nothing to anyone else but the peers of said geeks….
Moving on to more mundane prognostications, used and new home sales are due out Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. The former showed 4680k last month with expectations of 4800k Tuesday. The latter, 352k v 360k. Reasonable growth or forlorn hope?
Aside from terminally granular guessing on my part (sales of REOs might account for bigger numbers of “fixer-upper” transactions), seems to me the market is set up for a disappointment.
(see: www.intercontilimited.com/ecodata.pdf)
Rally's fate hinges on Fed, home sales
By Caroline Valetkevitch – Fri Jun 19, 8:31 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Without further signs of life in the lackluster economy or hints from the Federal Reserve the outlook is improving, stocks' three-month rally may run into more obstacles next week. Investors will assess data on new and existing home sales that could point to whether the battered housing sector has bottomed. They will also keep an eye out for profit forecasts or warnings as the second quarter draws to a close.
FED AND EARNINGS WATCH
While expectations are that the Fed will keep rates steady next week, the question is: How long will the Fed keep rates near historic low levels? The Fed's last decision on rates was in December, when it cut the benchmark fed funds rate to almost zero from 1 percent. "They will probably have to send a clear, credible signal that rates are not going to be raised in 2009 or even in the first half of 2010," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey.
In the coming week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify on Thursday at a congressional committee hearing on the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch merger.
More:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090620/bs_nm/us_column_stocks_outlook
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
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