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Census Bureau Economics
25 July 2009
Rally may cool on earnings reality check
Despite the headline, last week’s ebullience over less-bad-than-expected earnings may well continue in the week to come as fully 180+ S&P500 companies are already on record as having beat forecasts by an encouraging 77%, or 140+ companies. This week we get to look under the earnings skirts of another 145 S&P members along with 12 DOW components.
Ecodata-wise, new home sales comes on the heels of a surprisingly positive existing homes number Friday. Whether new property sales will track used homes (many of which were in the “distressed” category) remains problematic so I’d not count too strongly on the estimates of a slight increase over last month’s number.
Consumer confidence expected to have waned a bit but based on anecdotal evidence from my circle of friends/associates, watch out for a steep decline as congress remains true to form by disappointing their own leader(s) on health-care even considering they don’t NEED the Republicans to do so (don't take that as a statement of support for the plan, rather it's more a condemnation of our legislative processes). Friday’s second estimate of 2Q GDP will remain negative but the recent third consecutive positive LEI number from ECRI, provides reasonable hope this may be the last quarter of negative GDP for the next six months to come (or two quarters, if old-standby urban-legends still hold water in this unique environment). Another record (115Byn) treasury financing facility next week will undoubtedly place upward pressure on interest rates as public needs crowd out private requirements. Then we have an unheard-of campaign interview of Bernanke by Jim Lehrer coming up as the FED HEAD begins lobbying for re-appointment...
Rally may cool on earnings reality check
Friday July 24, 2009, 9:16 pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street may take a breather next week after an earnings-driven rally lifted the major U.S. stock indexes to their highest levels in months. The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average popped back above the 9,000 mark this week for the first time since January. And the Standard and Poor's 500 Index ended Friday at 979.26 -- up almost 45 percent from the 12-year closing low hit on March 9 -- after a number of prominent companies' earnings surpassed Wall Street's expectations.
The gross domestic product data due on Friday could reinforce the perception that the worst U.S. recession in decades will end in the year's second half. The government's first reading on second-quarter GDP could be the last negative reading, according to some analysts, which would mark the end of the current recession, now in its 19th month.
Bernanke holds his own “town hall” meeting….
Wall Street and Main Street are likely to tune in when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appears on PBS next week in a town hall-style forum called "Bernanke on the Record," hosted by Jim Lehrer to be recorded on Sunday and serially broadcast on PBS’ "News Hour" Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Weekly ecodata schedule:
www.intercontilimited.com/ecodata.pdf
Weekly earnings schedule:
www.intercontilimited.com/earns.pdf
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
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