T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
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16 August 2009
“MacroTechniMentalists”?? (I just made the term up).
PRE-OPENING UPDATE1 !!! Overnite screen, Asian and now Euro-Bourses are all decidedly lower with the former showing a 160+ point Dow loss, Asia off about 2.00% and the latter down an average of 1.6% A/O 03:47 CDT. Looks like the reality of neo-consumerism (which is to say "none") may finally be coming home to roost. Absent a real whopper of a news surprise in the interim, expect an opening swoon in NYC tomorrow.
Eliades and Arch Crawford have been around almost as long as I have and though Crawford attempts to predict the markets on Astrological bases, his record ain’t all that bad… Both are now wondering where we go now that well over 70% of issues have reported earnings (most surprising to the upside but almost solely on cost-cutting measures)… Where will the sales of end products come from and how much more can be cut from ops expenses at this point? Even WORSE (IMHO) is the fact everybody’s lauding the tech sector as our savior in allowing further cost cut “CAPTCHA”. But this still does absolutely nada to aid sales shortfalls and even exacerbates the problem because compu-machina don’t CONSUME anything other than electrical power. As if sensing these concerns, Asia is down around 2% across the board a/o 23:40 CDT - about the only hope I can draw from that lies in the likelihood Far-Eastern markets are simply taking our lead from Friday at this point.
FURTHER, as the kiddies go back to school, volume returns to trading markets as does a lengthening of trend duration allowing futures trend-followers a bit more time to jump on board as those trends play out – AND the trends are typified (usually) by greater (albeit somewhat slower) volatility. This is being uncovered in a mini-white-paper I’m working on with several other highly-respected pros on the subject of CTA and Algo-trading seasonality – working title: “CTA Seasonality – Fact or Forlorn Hope?”…
Long-term Equities “MacroTechniMentalists” worry (again)…..
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The first down week for a month? Might not mean much. But two of last year's winners are worried.
Arch Crawford's Crawford Perspectives and Peter Eliades' Stock Market Cycles were respectively the #1 and #2 performers for last year, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest -- i.e. they dodged the Crash of 2008. They were up 42.4% and 20.8% respectively, while the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 was down negative 38.3%. See Dec. 17, 2008 column.
Crawford and Eliades use unorthodox methods. Crawford openly talks about astrology, although he throws in other technical and fundamental comments. See Jan. 9 column. See Nov. 9, 2008 column. Eliades uses a variety of esoteric cycle theories, many of his own invention.
Asia slides 2% into the new week after rally; yen & China hurts
By Aiko Hayashi, et al…
TOKYO, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average fell 2.2 percent on Monday, retreating from 10-month highs, with exporters such as Kyocera (6971.T) hit as the yen rose against the dollar on concerns about how quickly the U.S. economy will recover
HONG KONG, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares will open 2 percent on lower Monday after U.S. consumer confidence data darkened the global economic outlook and as Shanghai-listed stocks continued their steep slide on worries about new supplies of shares.
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
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