Anthony Kolton is president of Logical Information Machines
http://www.lim.com/
and
http://www.markethistory.com/
Related Ideas:
Analog Update - Dow 1929 vs. Nasdaq 2000 (UPDATED 10 Dec 2008) - December 8, 2008
Update - Dow 1924-1937 Analog - March 20, 2008
Dow-Nasdaq Analog - Updated (through end of 2007) - October 12, 2007
Dow 1930s versus Nasdaq in the New Millennium (UPDATED Chart) - May 3, 2007
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
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04 August 2009
Parallel Coefficiency?
Not that I'm a "perma-bear" mind you but I keep running across people drawing parallels with 1929-30 lately - and I ASSURE you I'm not seeking them out. Here's another one from friend Tony Kolton of Logical Information Machines in Texas and Chicago. Admittedly, it's a few weeks old but Tony added an update a few days ago which can be seen in the headlne linkage. Coming on the heels of Art Cashin's cautionary optimism, I felt it worthwhile including today. Recall Cashin feels if we're able to sustain some semblance of upward bias through Friday, he's hopeful we'll be able to set the Parallax view aside and move on. EVEN IF WE DON'T, I'm not at all averse to the possibility the markets might continue to rise - exhibiting a not-entirely-unheard-of disconnect between Main and Wall Streets. Should this occur, neither would it be beyond the pale of possibility the market recovery in and of itself might raise consumer sentiment to the point some semblance of real (Main Street) recovery might ensue. Nothing earth-shaking (IMHO) but probably enough based on Corporate downsizing and inventory drawdowns already "booked" by our manufacturing sector (not to mention our retailers)....
Monday, July 13, 2009
By Anthony Kolton
Our Analog Chart showing the parallel moves between the Dow before and after the 1929peak and crash and the Nasdaq peak in 2000 and subsequent crash has played out nicely, calling the bottom in March. Now things look less directional, as you can see in the chart below.
I do not see any major bull market for round 4 years. I think the trend is down/sideways for the next 4 years.
Anthony Kolton is president of Logical Information Machines
http://www.lim.com/
and
http://www.markethistory.com/
Related Ideas:
Analog Update - Dow 1929 vs. Nasdaq 2000 (UPDATED 10 Dec 2008) - December 8, 2008
Update - Dow 1924-1937 Analog - March 20, 2008
Dow-Nasdaq Analog - Updated (through end of 2007) - October 12, 2007
Dow 1930s versus Nasdaq in the New Millennium (UPDATED Chart) - May 3, 2007
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Anthony Kolton is president of Logical Information Machines
http://www.lim.com/
and
http://www.markethistory.com/
Related Ideas:
Analog Update - Dow 1929 vs. Nasdaq 2000 (UPDATED 10 Dec 2008) - December 8, 2008
Update - Dow 1924-1937 Analog - March 20, 2008
Dow-Nasdaq Analog - Updated (through end of 2007) - October 12, 2007
Dow 1930s versus Nasdaq in the New Millennium (UPDATED Chart) - May 3, 2007
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
macro-economics

