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06 August 2009
Tudor Investment Calls Stock Gain a Bear-Market Rally
Again - I've run across yet ANOTHER cautionary note from none other than Paul Tudor Jones - legendary futures trader and Hedgistani tycoon!!! I'm still sticking to my story that these are coming to me and I'm not seeking them out at all.... That said, it's becoming clearer that my concern over the possible disconnect of Main from Wall (Streets) is becoming if not PERVASIVE - at least more widespread than I originally hoped. Believe it or not, I WANT to be wrong on this point not only because I have to live out a few more years in this mess but more importantly, I have two kids, five grandkids and one GREAT grandkid who may be doomed to a rather dull existence if I am right.
Tonight, I'm contenting myself with the hope tomorrow's pre-opening employment situation report might provide some slim level of encouragement against my fears. On the other hand, from a market standpoint, we're soon going to find ourselves in a seasonally weak period with September the worst month, followed by October which historically tends toward the "turnaround" month du annum.
By Saijel Kishan
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Tudor Investment Corp., the $10.8 billion hedge-fund firm run by Paul Tudor Jones, said equity markets could decline later this year, creating buying opportunities.
Slowing growth in China and the return of front-page stories on swine flu may be “further catalysts for global equity markets to pause in September,” the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm said in an Aug. 3 client letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.
Tudor said the 47 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of the largest U.S. companies since March 9, when it fell to a 12-year low, is a “bear-market rally.” The index topped 1,000 for the first time in nine months this week after companies reported better-than-expected profits.
“Impressive counter-trend rallies are a feature, not an oddity, of secular bear markets,” Tudor said. “We are not inclined to aggressively chase the market here. Many doubts remain about the sustainability of this recovery, most prominently the weakness of household income growth.”
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
macro-economics

