("what goes into Vegas, STAYS in Vegas") ultimate adrenalin rush. .
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"Resource Investor" - Physicals
Bureau of Economic Analysis
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30 July 2013
Case-Shiller home prices jumped
I humbly caution you not to get too emotionally involved (elation, despair - THRILL of victory - agony of the feet, etc., etc.) with this and inevitably similar headlines-to-be. ..
After half decade of pain which seems only now to be showing signs of abatement, we still don't have a handle on shadow inventory - if there even IS a shadow inventory.
I won't belabor it other than to point out deep and/or lengthy recessions suffer a shoulder season of recovery fraught with fits & starts, contrapuntal raw economic data feeding psychotic economic analyses by even some of the more grounded of the "Messianic" Keynesianics as we're all driven to distraction trying to sift for truth, justice and the American Way thru a pile of numbers obtained by the most sketchy of means (undergrad unpaid interns someplace in Michigan where I hear Detroit once stood)....
I'm not being unkind really - seeking a chuckle from the vagaries of data collection upon which decisions of PROFOUND import are oft made.
Beyond this, much as it will now be, always has been, and may remain until we're all replaced by armies of "Nano-Men" - some with Real-Estate Licenses in good standing....
Residential Real Estate is not an efficient price discovery mechanism on the order of NYSE or CME.
With the exception of ad-hoc foreclosure auctions, it's a purely OTC market with all the Achilles' Heels that implies - CUBED!
Expect outliers on both sides, making this exercise appear to the degenerate gambler's
("what goes into Vegas, STAYS in Vegas") ultimate adrenalin rush. .
("what goes into Vegas, STAYS in Vegas") ultimate adrenalin rush. .
Don't get me wrong - we'll get through this - there will be outliers, shocks to the psyche of both sorts, the outliers will diminish in frequency over time and show ever less price discrepancies until the scatter chart looks like a fuzzy moving average with a slight upward bias.
Whence it comes to pass, try and remember what I'm saying now - because I fully intend saying exactly the opposite tomorrow while imploring THOSE readers to do the same.
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case-shiller price spike

