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Showing posts with label Gartman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gartman. Show all posts
12 December 2013
Gartman: QE has 'overstayed its welcome'
Maybe so - but the FED's been fighting a war not to ignite employment as everybody thinks,,,
Rather, they've been acting to diffuse deflation because once started, they have no arrows in their quiver to STOP it - and they know it. (look at Japan's lost generation since the Tokyo R/E crash).
Then look at the underlying causes for Japan's deflationary environment.
Yes - there's the low-to-negative birth rate which eventually affects the supply/demand balance of everything...
Then, there's the ageing populace wherein savers and investors shift from that mode to investment liquidators without a commensurate increase in spending as they downsize during the empty nesting phase and only spend what they must on essentials hoping they don't end up outlasting their retirement savings.
Most importantly, was the "shadow inventory" of Tokyo commercial real-estate funded by non-performing loans which (perhaps uniquely to their society, but I suspect slightly more fundamental to human nature itself) remained hidden away as much as practicable by the elder C-Suites "Zaibatsu" for whom the shame of losing face from the write-downs would've risen from the level of embarrassment, possible ridicule and eventual unemployment - to (real or imagined) peer-pressure to commit "Seppuku" (stylistic, particularly gruesome suicide - according to the Bushido Warrior code from whence the Zaibatsu came in post-war Japan).
18 September 2012
02 July 2012
22 June 2012
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