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"Resource Investor" - Physicals
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Census Bureau Economics
08 August 2009
Stocks' rally hinges on consumers and Fed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's rally could persist next week as investors' conviction grows that the U.S. economy is on track for a recovery. But retailers' results, CPI and other consumer data could cast a pall if shoppers fail to show signs of life.
The focus will also be on the Federal Reserve, which will release a statement on Wednesday afternoon at the end of its two-day interest rate-setting meeting. The central bank is expected to hold rates near zero. So investors will look for signals of an exit strategy from its efforts prop up the financial system.
The government's July retail sales data as well as quarterly scorecards from major retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT - News), J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP - News) and Macy's (NYSE:M - News), will give a snapshot of the industry and how consumer spending is faring in the recession. So far, consumers have tightened their belts and shopped mostly for just the bare necessities as worries about job security take precedence.
SHOPPERS ON CENTER STAGE
Monthly retail sales are expected to rise 0.7 percent for July, according to economists surveyed by Reuters, compared with a 0.6 percent gain in June. This U.S. Commerce Department data is due on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT
On Friday, Wall Street will get a double dose of consumer data. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for July will be released at 8:30 a.m., followed by a preliminary reading for August on consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers at about 9:55 a.m..
Overall CPI is forecast to remain steady in July, according to the Reuters poll, after June's 0.7 percent jump. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to edge up 0.1 percent in July, the poll said, after June's increase of 0.2 percent.
Economists look for a preliminary August reading of 68.3 on the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, after July's final number of 66.0.
STEADY AS SHE GOES
The Fed is expected to keep benchmark interest rates near zero when it releases its statement on Wednesday. Investors also believe the Federal Open Market Committee's comments about monetary policy will maintain the status quo.
Eco-Data schedule & expectations:
www.intercontilimited.com/ecodata.pdf
Earnings schedule & expectations:
www.intercontilimited.com/earns.pdf
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
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