T. W. Merryman Managing Director Interconti, Limited (Market Research Analysts) Chicago, IL 60604 e: intercon@intercontilimited.com w: www.intercontilimited.com
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"Resource Investor" - Physicals
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Census Bureau Economics
01 August 2009
The US-China Ponzi scheme
As you know by now, I harbor significant doubts about the state of the seeming "recovery" at this point - it's just been too easy thusfar considering the depth of the pile of real estate rubble we're ignoring hoping it will turn out to be bio-degradable. Something's eventually going to have to be done about it other than clinging to forlorn hope it'll just go back to nature and be absorbed by the environment. Then we have the new homes construction numbers which recently showed an uptick. Far from good news (IMHO) this just adds to the oversupply and will end up driving prices for distressed peoperties still on the market (and often empty) further down even as the lack of occupancy causes them to physically degrade over time. On the other hand we have home builders continuing to do what they do as soon as they can get financing by hook, crook or government largesse. One can't blame them because it's their job and it allows them to keep skilled construction crews on the payolls and working in hopes the teams will remain relatively intact when the turnaround finally comes..... IF it comes.
Then, we have concerns over the "BRICs" intermmitently calling for a new reserve currency from time-to-time while Geithner (fool that he seems to be) reports loudly that the Chinese have told him they're firmly behind the greenback during his recent visit to Peking.
FOR CHRIST SAKE Geithner - they're CHINESE!!!!! (don't you get it?) - Chinese - the most patient, pragmatic, prolific traders the world has ever seen!! The people who produced Sun Tsu who wrote "The Art of War" before the time of Christ which is still studied in War Colleges all over the globe and given even greater credence than Clausewitz who wrote his treatise(s) nearly two millenia later.....
One possible weakness I perceive in the Chinese lies in the fact their EcoMiracle is being reported by the same type of bureaucracy which told the Communists in Russia their economy was humming along nicely until Mikhail Gorbachev came to power and the inbred fraud (based on negative incentives for eco-planners in USSR vs. the positive incentives we gave to OUR financial modellers on Wall Street), caused the USSR to implode almost overnite!
Don't count on the Chi-Coms (for they still ARE Chi-Coms at heart) - especially within the "PLA" [People's Liberation Army] which happens to be the holding company of the largest Chinese business enterprises extant - including such groups as Hutchison Whampoa the ex Tai-Pan organization in pre-reconciliation Hong Kong who just happened to end up with the operating contract for the Panama Canal after Jimmy Carter decided to give it back in a fit of Christian charity...
I have to wonder just what kinda grades wunder-kinder Geithner received in his collegiate modern history classes.....
(OK - soap-box closed).
ps: This not to say I think the market's about to crash - I have no idea about that based even on my long years of experience and consequentially spotty memory. But it is a trader's market and traders markets hold opportunity for - well... TRADERS.
By Jon Markman MSN Money
By unwittingly tying together their fortunes as they pursued their own interests, the 2 nations have put themselves on an economic path of mutually assured destruction.
Imagine becoming so successful at your job that you stack up $2 trillion in income, which you conservatively place in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds for safekeeping.
Now imagine that when you try to cash in those bonds to buy a few things for your kids, the clerk at the bank abruptly shuts her window and tells you to go away.
That is essentially the situation faced by China these d
ays as it wonders whether its plan to manufacture goods for U.S. consumers over the past two decades in exchange for a pile of credit slips was really such a hot idea.
The answer is coming up as a big, fat "uh-oh" as the U.S. deficit and debt obligations balloon to levels never before contemplated, and Beijing is denied requests to buy U.S. and Australian mines and oil properties. And as Beijing leaders talk openly, if obliquely, about their angst, they are unsettling world credit, currency and stock markets, which don't know what to make of the idea that the world's largest Ponzi scheme might be coming to an abrupt end. Click graphic OR headline to view Video:
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Geo-Political Analyses


