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Showing posts with label Geo-Political Analyses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geo-Political Analyses. Show all posts
15 November 2012
26 November 2010
Gold off on Greenback safe-haven trade vs. Euro
Gold fell 1 percent on Friday as the dollar pushed to fresh two-month highs against the euro on worries that Ireland's debt crisis was spreading and on growing speculation of an imminent Portuguese bailout.
However, gold was underpinned by some modest safe haven buying amid investor nervousness over the European debt crisis after a newspaper report that euro zone nations were pressuring Portugal to follow Ireland's lead and seek a bailout. Portugal and Germany's finance ministry denied the report.
Trade was fairly thin as U.S. markets were closed for a second day following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
"Investors are eyeing a strengthening dollar and see no reason to hold gold in a strengthening dollar environment," said David Wilson, analyst at Societe Generale.
Gold's traditional inverse relation to the U.S. dollar broke down in May this year when the euro zone's debt problems became apparent, prompting investors to dump the single European currency, but the dynamic has since reasserted itself.
In euro terms, gold was easier at 1,023.81 euros an ounce compared with 1,028.76 euros late on Thursday, but still firmly above the 1,000 euros mark it broke through on Monday for the first time in a week.
Euro Woes
"Gold's still holding well on the crosses which is the important thing at the moment. I think it's just drifting in thin quiet Friday conditions as the currency markets move," said Simon Weeks, a trader at Scotiamocatta.
A stark warning by North Korea following its shelling of the South earlier this week added to an uncertain geopolitical picture which could lend gold some support from more risk-averse investors.
North Korea said on Friday that impending military exercises by the South and the United States were pushing the region towards war.
"Precious metals are caught between buyers who see them as a hedge against Korean tension and European sovereign debt problems, while others have been selling it on the back of the continued dollar rally," said Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank.
(click headline for full report)
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
Commodities,
Geo-Political Analyses
01 August 2009
The US-China Ponzi scheme
As you know by now, I harbor significant doubts about the state of the seeming "recovery" at this point - it's just been too easy thusfar considering the depth of the pile of real estate rubble we're ignoring hoping it will turn out to be bio-degradable. Something's eventually going to have to be done about it other than clinging to forlorn hope it'll just go back to nature and be absorbed by the environment. Then we have the new homes construction numbers which recently showed an uptick. Far from good news (IMHO) this just adds to the oversupply and will end up driving prices for distressed peoperties still on the market (and often empty) further down even as the lack of occupancy causes them to physically degrade over time. On the other hand we have home builders continuing to do what they do as soon as they can get financing by hook, crook or government largesse. One can't blame them because it's their job and it allows them to keep skilled construction crews on the payolls and working in hopes the teams will remain relatively intact when the turnaround finally comes..... IF it comes.
Then, we have concerns over the "BRICs" intermmitently calling for a new reserve currency from time-to-time while Geithner (fool that he seems to be) reports loudly that the Chinese have told him they're firmly behind the greenback during his recent visit to Peking.
FOR CHRIST SAKE Geithner - they're CHINESE!!!!! (don't you get it?) - Chinese - the most patient, pragmatic, prolific traders the world has ever seen!! The people who produced Sun Tsu who wrote "The Art of War" before the time of Christ which is still studied in War Colleges all over the globe and given even greater credence than Clausewitz who wrote his treatise(s) nearly two millenia later.....
One possible weakness I perceive in the Chinese lies in the fact their EcoMiracle is being reported by the same type of bureaucracy which told the Communists in Russia their economy was humming along nicely until Mikhail Gorbachev came to power and the inbred fraud (based on negative incentives for eco-planners in USSR vs. the positive incentives we gave to OUR financial modellers on Wall Street), caused the USSR to implode almost overnite!
Don't count on the Chi-Coms (for they still ARE Chi-Coms at heart) - especially within the "PLA" [People's Liberation Army] which happens to be the holding company of the largest Chinese business enterprises extant - including such groups as Hutchison Whampoa the ex Tai-Pan organization in pre-reconciliation Hong Kong who just happened to end up with the operating contract for the Panama Canal after Jimmy Carter decided to give it back in a fit of Christian charity...
I have to wonder just what kinda grades wunder-kinder Geithner received in his collegiate modern history classes.....
(OK - soap-box closed).
ps: This not to say I think the market's about to crash - I have no idea about that based even on my long years of experience and consequentially spotty memory. But it is a trader's market and traders markets hold opportunity for - well... TRADERS.
By Jon Markman MSN Money
By unwittingly tying together their fortunes as they pursued their own interests, the 2 nations have put themselves on an economic path of mutually assured destruction.
Imagine becoming so successful at your job that you stack up $2 trillion in income, which you conservatively place in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds for safekeeping.
Now imagine that when you try to cash in those bonds to buy a few things for your kids, the clerk at the bank abruptly shuts her window and tells you to go away.
That is essentially the situation faced by China these d
ays as it wonders whether its plan to manufacture goods for U.S. consumers over the past two decades in exchange for a pile of credit slips was really such a hot idea.
The answer is coming up as a big, fat "uh-oh" as the U.S. deficit and debt obligations balloon to levels never before contemplated, and Beijing is denied requests to buy U.S. and Australian mines and oil properties. And as Beijing leaders talk openly, if obliquely, about their angst, they are unsettling world credit, currency and stock markets, which don't know what to make of the idea that the world's largest Ponzi scheme might be coming to an abrupt end. Click graphic OR headline to view Video:
T. W. Merryman Managing Director Interconti, Limited (Market Research Analysts) Chicago, IL 60604 e: intercon@intercontilimited.com w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
Geo-Political Analyses
18 June 2009
Iranian Crisis and Implications
I TOLD you this was going to become an issue worth watching -
(why doesn't anybody ever listen to me?)
HA!
In the midst of an economic crisis, we are inundated with data - information that often, a few years down the line, turns out to be wrong. Forecasts are made based on a single month's set of data or previous trends, and the public often doesn't know how to read the fine print about margins of error.
The problem is faulty methodology. Most media and even government intelligence agencies assume the information they get from leadership figures is 100% correct, no questions asked - leading to defective analyses. Instead, underlying assumptions should be constantly vetted in the face of new facts. I'd encourage you to consider the intelligence produced by my friend George Friedman at STRATFOR - a trusted source in forecasting future geopolitical trends.
It looks beyond the current protests in Iran and delves into what policy changes could be on the horizon in this pivotal Middle Eastern state. George extrapolates what these recent events mean for President Obama's and Israel's options in terms of Iran and the peace process.
Anyone looking to gain a leg up in the world of finance needs to understand geopolitics and foreign investments. Take a look at STRATFOR, which offers a special deal for my readers. Barron's referred to them in a cover-story profile as the "Shadow CIA," but I would say that their methodology gives them much greater accuracy than their government counterpart.
To Intelligence,
John Mauldin
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
Geo-Political Analyses
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