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"Resource Investor" - Physicals
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Census Bureau Economics
23 September 2009
Window Dressing Season upon us….
Something taken as rote amongst stockbroker types but less known amongst futures types may have been partially responsible for Wednesday’s late weakness.
At quarter’s end, Mutual Funds begin to prepare their portfolios to look as good as possible in their quarterly reports (10Qs) to clients. They have a tendency to sell their worst-performing investments while replacing them with better-performing issues currently enjoying broad coverage in financial media.
Why?
Simple (and viewed by many as slightly less than totally “honest”)….. The 10Qs list snapshots of portfolio holdings as of the quarter’s end rather than everything which has passed through the portfolio during the entire quarter.
Thus, the snapshot is manipulated to show better holdings than may have been the case during the covered period. They’re betting retail investors won’t drill down to forensically analyze performance numbers based on the returns shown in the end-of-quarter snapshot. Indeed, should investors do so, significant discrepancies would often arise. One might logically ask why institutional allocators don’t go public or at least object to such actions and the reason (IMHO) lies in the fact pension plan administrators and other institutional allocators enjoy significantly greater transparency than do retail investors. They already know what the weaker choices were and understand the practice while probably profiting from the knowledge along the way by shorting the weaklings while going long the potential beneficiaries in short-term trades designed to enhance their own Alpha from just this anomaly.
Whether in this market environment – with such significant overall gains this year – will militate toward any sizeable downside bias is beyond my purpose in pointing this rather obtuse fact out. Nevertheless, the “shape-shifting” will occur and it’s likely to foment at least isolated instances of index volatility which can’t truly be explained by the fundamentals or technical analyses.
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
Micro-Economics

