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10 October 2009
Bove on Financial earnings angst
While Alcoa's surprise positive earnings report has raised expectations & hopes for an ebullient 3Q earnings reporting season, veteran bank analyst Dick Bove remains circumspect at least on his specialty sector.
Whether his reservations will be realized this season or held off until the second real-estate shoe drops or (indeed) ever be realized at all, is beyond my prognosticative powers. Nevertheless, it strikes me that to ignore his worst imaginings would be a disservice to us all….. observe below and click the link to read the entire MarketWatch article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-bank-earnings-begin-a-warning-from-the-occ-2009-10-09
Bank stocks surged during the third quarter, but as companies prepare to report results from the period, several industry experts remain concerned. "We are very early on in this credit cycle," Timothy Long, chief national bank examiner at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, said at a recent conference. "That statement caught everyone by surprise," said Nancy Bush, a veteran bank analyst who attended the conference.
J.P. Morgan Chase kicks off the bank-reporting season on Wednesday.
Thinking the worst is behind the industry, investors began looking to 2010 and 2011 when banks should be a lot healthier, according to Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities. Third-quarter results will make that leap of faith harder to maintain, he said. "Third-quarter earnings for most banks, particularly the regional lenders, will be extraordinarily negative," Bove said.
He estimates that about 60% of banks will report losses in the period as nonperforming assets continue to grow and charge-offs remain very high. Lenders will also have to increase reserves because they didn't bolster them enough during the second quarter, Bove added. "None of this bodes well for the third quarter," Bove said. "Once the market is faced with the reality of how bad the earnings are, it will be interesting to see whether investors will be able to hold on to these stocks at these price levels."
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
Micro-Economics

