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02 September 2009
CFTC, FINRA regtalks spell end of Commods ETFs?
It's well known I'm on a campaign against commodities ETFs/ETNs because I believe they're too easy to invest in for the un-initiated, they're a direct competitor to Managed Futures and they represent a return to exactly the same problems which bit the pension funds in the derriere in 2H of 2008 (almost - ETFs aren't solely "long-only" because there are some which can be "short-only" AND [provided one can find hypothecated shares somewhere on the street], they can occasionally be shorted)... But I've been unable to find any ETF/ETNs which represent trend-following strategies managed by pros... And the trend-followers were the ones which managed to eke out substantial Alpha last year when all else save bonds fell into a deep chasm we're only now crawling out of. CFTC talks targeted at curbing speculation have caused about five (current count) ETF issuers to curtail new share issuance essentially making them into closed-end funds with all that implies. What's that imply? Simply put many such closed-end funds are now selling at a premium to NAV in the secondary market. SOME of them to the tune of almost 10% premium to value!! That said, today DeutcheBank elected to close its Oil Market ETF (DXO) and daily share volume for the genre' has shrunk from around 40mm shares traded during January all the way to 7mm SPD today. Adding insult to injury, CFTC & FINRA rumored to be contemplating raising margin and disclosure requirements on ETF/ETNs which may be the final nail in their coffin. For futures pros who believe in IMAs this could well prove the boon I've been pushing for!
Airtime: Wed. Sept. 2 2009 10:25 AM ET
Dan Dicker, an independent oil trader, discusses how new regulations could affect commodity investing.
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
Commodities

