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"Resource Investor" - Physicals
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Census Bureau Economics
12 October 2009
2nd Shoe being "unlaced"??
In the commercial mortgage arena, analysts tend to look at collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) as a bellweather leading indicator. With a spike in payment deliquencies on the order of 16% in a single month - this may be the beginning of the next shoe we've been expecting to drop. Of course, Resorts could get lucky and experience a similar spike in Casino drop (income) - don't think that's so farfetched, as a former VP Marketing for Tropicana Resorts, I can personally attest that a single "whale" can have a bad streak and make the wrong choice to chase the losses with bigger bets, sometimes taking a full quarter's earnings way into the black in a single 3.3-day stay (click headline for article source)...
CDO Delinquencies Spike 10-12-2009
Delinquencies on commercial real estate collateralized debt obligations jumped in September, with the Fitch CREL CDO Delinquency Index rising from 7.5% to 8.7%. The increase stems from the addition of 27 new delinquent loans to the index. "Delinquencies have more than tripled since September of last year," added Karen Trebach, senior director.
The newly delinquent loans were split among the office, land and construction and hospitality sectors. The hospitality sector saw nine loan interests, eight of which are tied to a single loan on a Resorts International property. The Resorts loan, which is spread among eight different CDOs, is now more than 60 days delinquent. Delinquent hotel loans make up almost 20% of the delinquency index, Trebach said, adding that delinquencies are expected to rise further.
Fitch rates 35 CDOs, 32 of which reported delinquencies in September. Twelve of these CDOs railed at least one overcollateralization test, Trebach added.
T. W. Merryman
Managing Director
Interconti, Limited
(Market Research Analysts)
Chicago, IL 60604
e: intercon@intercontilimited.com
w: www.intercontilimited.com
Labels:
Micro-Economics

